Political forecast cycles

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.     

Individualism and political instability

This paper examines the relationship between the individualism-collectivism dimension of culture and political instability using a dataset covering around 100 countries. To shed light on the causal effect of culture on political instability, the identification strategy exploits the variation in historical pathogen prevalence and the information provided by the genetic distance between countries. The results reveal that individualism has a negative and statistically significant impact on the degree of political instability, which means that this cultural trait contributes to making the political environment more stable. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of a substantial number of controls that may be correlated with both individualism and political instability, including other cultural dimensions. In fact, the relationship between individualism and political instability does not depend either on the specific measures used to quantify the level of individualism and political instability within the various countries or the estimation strategy adopted. The estimates also show that part of the observed effect of individualism is due to the impact of institutional quality, which acts as a transmission channel linking this cultural trait and political instability.     

Permit markets,carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters

Innovation clusters combining public and private effort to develop breakthrough technologies promise greater technological advances to slow down climate change. We use a multi-country model with an emission trading system to examine whether and how international climate policy can incentivize countries to create such innovation clusters. We find that a minimal carbon price is needed to attract applied research firms, but countries may nevertheless fail to invest in complementary research infrastructure. We construct a mechanism that leads to innovation clusters when emissions targets are set before uncertainty surrounding technological developments is resolved. It is a combination of low permit endowments for the country with the lowest costs to build the needed infrastructure, compensation for this country by profits from permit trade, and maximal possible permit endowments for the remaining countries. We outline how the EU-ETS can be further refined according to this mechanism.     

东部地区十省市规模以上工业企业研发投入绩效评价

选取2021年度数据，采用数据包络分析（DEA）方法对中国东部地区10个省份规模以上工业企业的研发投入绩效进行评价，并采用灰关联分析方法分析确定各项研发投入产出指标相对于DEA效率的灰色关联度。研究结果表明，80%的省份规上工业企业研发投入产出处于非DEA有效状态，存在不同程度的投入冗余或产出不足；规上工业企业发明专利申请数与研发投入产出效率的关联度最高，其次是新产品销售收入和R&D经费内部支出。     

Institutional investor horizon and stock price synchronicity: Do product market competition and analyst coverage matter?

This paper provides new insights into the relation between institutional investment horizon and stock price synchronicity and investigates whether this relationship depends on the intensity of product market competition and analyst coverage. Based on a sample of French listed companies, we find that long-term (short-term) institutional investors are associated with lower (higher) stock price synchronicity. The results also show that the negative effect of long-term institutional investors is more accentuated for firms in less competitive markets and with high analyst coverage. An additional analysis shows that the synchronicity reduction effect does not vary during the financial crisis. Overall, these findings suggest that unlike their short-term counterparts, long term investors reduce asymmetric information and help disseminate firm-specific information into stock prices.     

Terrorism and international economic policy

We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.     

政府投资工程总承包项目设计优化认定与收益归属研究

工程总承包模式以设计与施工的高度融合,日益在建筑业受到青睐。但由于政府投资项目中存在有关结余资金上缴国库等规定,容易导致政府投资工程总承包项目下设计优化产生的成果是进行分成或作为结余资金上缴界定不清。鉴于此,本文通过政策文件,并结合政府投资项目特点,分析政府投资工程总承包项目设计优化的情形认定以及在不同结算依据和合同计价方式下设计优化收益归属的界定,为有效激励总承包单位积极进行设计优化奠定基础。     

纳税信用评级结果披露与研发投入

以纳税信用评级披露作为一个天然外生冲击,并基于2013—2016年1214家A股上市公司的微观数据构造准自然实验,使用双重差分法系统评估纳税信用评级结果披露对上市公司研发投入的影响。结果发现:纳税信用评级结果披露显著增加了上市公司的研发投入。基于PSM-DID方法的估计结果与上述结论无明显差异。稳健性检验也表明上述结论的正确性。机制检验表明,纳税信用评级结果披露通过降低企业的融资约束,进而促进企业增加研发投入。此外,分样本回归发现纳税信用评级结果披露只能对中小型企业和民营企业的研发投入产生促进作用。     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

二代涉入、制度情境与中国家族企业创新投入——基于社会情感财富理论的研究

基于社会情感财富理论,本文以2012-2016年中国A股上市家族企业为样本,采用倾向得分匹配法,对一定制度情境下二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的影响进行实证研究。研究结果表明:二代涉入会抑制家族企业的创新投入,发生二代涉入的家族企业会更重视约束型社会情感财富,而该类社会情感财富会导致家族企业对创新投入持保守态度;制度环境对二代涉入与家族企业创新投入之间的关系具有正向调节效应,从而会缓和二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的抑制作用;政治关联对二代涉入与家族企业创新投入之间的关系具有负向调节效应,从而会加剧二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的抑制作用。据此,本文建议:发生二代涉入的家族企业不能为了加强对企业的控制而排斥引入外部优良人才或外部投资者,创始人应该注重二代成员对家族企业归属感等的培养,提升二代成员对延伸型社会情感财富的保护意愿;政府和家族企业必须共同努力推进市场化改革,藉此完善家族企业赖以生存的制度环境;家族企业应当尽量避免政治寻租等行为对创新的抑制作用。